Quick Answer
Most financial planners use the '25x rule' — multiply your annual expenses by 25. If you spend $60,000/year, you need roughly $1.5 million. But Social Security, pensions, and your withdrawal strategy all change this number significantly.
The most common retirement number people hear is $1 million. That number is almost meaningless without context. What matters is your specific annual spending — not some generic benchmark.
Start with your current monthly expenses. Project forward to account for inflation (typically 2–3% per year). Subtract guaranteed income sources like Social Security or pension payments. The gap is what your portfolio needs to cover.
If you expect to spend $5,000/month in retirement and Social Security covers $2,500, your portfolio only needs to generate $2,500/month — about $30,000/year. Using the 4% withdrawal rate, that's $750,000 — not $1.5 million.
Healthcare is the wildcard. A healthy couple retiring at 65 can expect to spend over $300,000 on healthcare in retirement, not including long-term care. This needs to be factored into your number.
Real-Life Example
Maria is 58 and wants to retire at 65. She spends $6,000/month today. She expects Social Security of $2,200/month at 67. The gap is $3,800/month, or $45,600/year. Using the 4% rule, she needs $1.14 million in retirement savings. Currently at $480,000 with 7 years to go, she needs to save aggressively and review her investment strategy — a conversation with a planner could show her how to close the gap.
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